@Article{AraújoSilvSilv:2019:SiPrTe,
author = "Ara{\'u}jo, Gl{\'{\i}}cia Ruth Garcia de and Silva,
Cl{\'a}udio Mois{\'e}s Santos e and Silva, Aline Gomes da",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)} and Instituto
Federal de Educa{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia do Rio
Grande do Norte (IFRN)",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o das parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es cumulos
Emanuel e Grell do Modelo Clim{\'a}tico Regional RegCM4:
simulando a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura a
superf{\'{\i}}cie sobre o nordeste brasileiro durante o outono
austral",
journal = "Anu{\'a}rio do Instituto de Geoci{\^e}ncias",
year = "2019",
volume = "42",
number = "1",
pages = "231--240",
note = "{Evaluation of Cumulus Parametrizations Emanuel and Grell of
Regional} and {Climate Model RegCM4: Simulating Precipitation and
Surface Temperature over Northeastern of} and {Brazil during the
Southern Autumn}",
keywords = "RegCM4, An{\'a}lise de cluster, Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o, RegCM4,
Cluster Analysis, Evaluation.",
abstract = "O resultado de simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com modelos din{\^a}micos
regionais apresentam erros sistem{\'a}ticos em diferentes
regi{\~o}es do mundo. Na regi{\~a}o tropical, tais erros
s{\~a}o geralmente associados {\`a}s incertezas nas
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es f{\'{\i}}sicas, por exemplo,
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o profunda ou a microf{\'{\i}}sica de
nuvens. Assim, o objetivo foi avaliar a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
temperatura de simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es realizadas com o modelo
RegCM4, com base em diferentes parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es (Grell
e Emanuel). A {\'a}rea de estudo foi o Nordeste do Brasil (NEB)
durante o outono (Mar{\c{c}}o-Abril-Maio) de 1998 a 2008. Para
avaliar a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o utilizaram-se dados do produto
3B42_V6 a partir de medidas do sat{\'e}lite Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM). A temperatura {\`a} superf{\'{\i}}cie
foi avaliada por meio dos resultados de rean{\'a}lises do
ERA-Interim. A metodologia foi composta pela an{\'a}lise de
cluster atrav{\'e}s de m{\'e}todo hier{\'a}rquico de
vari{\^a}ncia m{\'{\i}}nima de Ward, correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
Pearson, an{\'a}lise de vari{\^a}ncia (ANOVA) e teste de
diferen{\c{c}}as entre m{\'e}dias (t-Student) com n{\'{\i}}vel
de signific{\^a}ncia de 0,05. Al{\'e}m disso, calcularam-se os
{\'{\i}}ndices de exatid{\~a}o: Erro Absoluto M{\'e}dio (MAE)
e a Raiz do Erro M{\'e}dio Quadr{\'a}tico (RMSE). Para
realiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o das an{\'a}lises estat{\'{\i}}sticas
utilizou-se o software R vers{\~a}o 3.4.3. Concluiu-se que ambas
as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es subestimam a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
estimada pelo TRMM. A simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o com a
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Emanuel apresentou os menores erros
nos clusters 1, 3 e 4. Em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a} temperatura
simulada pelo RegCM4, as parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es obtiveram
resultados melhores na simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o desta vari{\'a}vel
em todos os clusters. ABSTRACT: The result of simulations with
regional dynamic models presents systematic errors in different
regions of the world. In the tropical region, such errors are
usually associated with the uncertainties in the physical
parameterizations, for example, deep convection or the cloud
microphysics. Thus, the objective was to evaluate precipitation
and temperature of simulations performed with the RegCM4 model,
based on different parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The
study area was the Northeast of Brazil (NEB) during the southern
autumns (March-April-May) from 1998 to 2008. For evaluate the
precipitation used 3B42_V6 algorithm data from the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). The surface
temperature was evaluated through the results reanalysis of
ERA-Interim. The methodology was composed by cluster analysis per
Wards minimal variance hierarchical method, Pearson correlation,
analysis of variance (ANOVA) and test of differences between
averages (t-Student) with significance level of 0.05. Moreover,
the accuracy indices were calculated: Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
and the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). For realization the
statistical analysis used the R software version 3.4.3. It was
concluded that both simulations underestimate precipitation
estimated by TRMM. The simulation with parameterization of Emanuel
presented minor errors in clusters 1, 3 and 4. In relation the
temperature simulated by the RegCM4, the best results were
obtained in simulation of this variable in all clusters.",
issn = "0101-9759",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "araujo_avaliacao.pdf",
url = "http://www.anuario.igeo.ufrj.br/2019_01/2019_1_231_240.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}